Paul the octopus (purportedly hatched January 2008) is a common octopus living in a tank at aSea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany. Paul became internationally famous for correctly predicting the winner of Germany's seven matches at the 2010 World Cup, as well as the final.During the divinations, Paul was presented with two boxes containing food in the form of a mussel, each box marked on the outside with the flag of a national football team in an upcoming match. Paul ate the mussel from the box with the flag of the winning team in four of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and in all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup. He correctly selected a win for Spain against the Netherlands in the World Cup final on 11 July by eating the mussel in the box with the Spanish flag on it.[1] His "predictions" were 100% (8/8) correct for the 2010 World Cup and 86% (12/14) correct overall. Paul has retired after the 2010 FIFA World Cup. The keeper at the aquarium claims that Paul was not the octopus which "predicted" the results for the 2008 UEFA European Football Championships, which would give him 100% accuracy overall.Career
It was at first claimed that Paul's career as an oracle began during the UEFA Euro 2008tournament.[3][8][13] In the lead-up to Germany's international football matches, Paul (or a similar octopus) was presented with two clear plastic boxes, each containing food: a musselor an oyster. Each container was marked with the flag of a team, one the flag of Germany, and the other the flag of Germany's opponent. The box which Paul opened first (and ate the contents of) was judged to be the predicted winner of the game.[14]Some sources indirectly expressed doubt about the octopus' abilities. The BBC, when they reported this news story, used scare quotes when describing the abilities of the octopus: "psychic", [15], "prophesy" [16]. Reuters also used scare quotes: "oracle octopus" [17].Paul's apparent success was considered to be comparable to a run of luck when tossing a coin. This connection has been made by Professor Chris Budd of the University of Bath, Professor David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University, and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie Curie University in Paris.[18][19]Under the hypothesis that Paul was equally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of a draw, he had a 1/2 chance of predicting any single result and a 1/256 chance of predicting eight in a row. Spiegelhalter and Roquain point out that there are "other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches"; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others (including humans), and only the successful animals gain public attention after the fact.Results
In UEFA Euro 2008, Paul correctly predicted the outcome of 4 out of 6 of Germany's matches. He failed to predict their defeats by Croatia in the group stage, and by Spain in the championship's final.[28] Some later sources wrongly reported his success rate at 80%.
Opponent
Stage Date Prediction Result Outcome 
Australiagroup stage 13 June 
Germany[38]4-0 Correct 
Serbiagroup stage 18 June Serbia[38] 0–1 Correct 
Ghanagroup stage 23 June Germany[38] 1–0 Correct 
Englandround of 16 27 June Germany[15] 4–1 Correct 
Argentinaquarter-finals 3 July Germany[31] 4–0 Correct 
Spainsemi-finals 7 July Spain[39] 0–1 Correct 
Uruguay3rd place play-off 10 July Germany[40] 3–2 Correct
Retirement
On July 12, 2010, Paul was retired from making predictions.[46] Paul's owners stated "He won't give any more oracle predictions – either in football, or in politics, lifestyle or economy. Paul will get back to his former job, namely making children laugh."[46] As a reward for his accurate predictions, aquarium staff presented him with his very own replica World Cup trophy garnished with his favourite food – mussels.
It was at first claimed that Paul's career as an oracle began during the UEFA Euro 2008tournament.[3][8][13] In the lead-up to Germany's international football matches, Paul (or a similar octopus) was presented with two clear plastic boxes, each containing food: a musselor an oyster. Each container was marked with the flag of a team, one the flag of Germany, and the other the flag of Germany's opponent. The box which Paul opened first (and ate the contents of) was judged to be the predicted winner of the game.[14]
Some sources indirectly expressed doubt about the octopus' abilities. The BBC, when they reported this news story, used scare quotes when describing the abilities of the octopus: "psychic", [15], "prophesy" [16]. Reuters also used scare quotes: "oracle octopus" [17].
Paul's apparent success was considered to be comparable to a run of luck when tossing a coin. This connection has been made by Professor Chris Budd of the University of Bath, Professor David Spiegelhalter of Cambridge University, and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie Curie University in Paris.[18][19]
Under the hypothesis that Paul was equally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of a draw, he had a 1/2 chance of predicting any single result and a 1/256 chance of predicting eight in a row. Spiegelhalter and Roquain point out that there are "other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches"; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others (including humans), and only the successful animals gain public attention after the fact.
Results
In UEFA Euro 2008, Paul correctly predicted the outcome of 4 out of 6 of Germany's matches. He failed to predict their defeats by Croatia in the group stage, and by Spain in the championship's final.[28] Some later sources wrongly reported his success rate at 80%
.
| Opponent | Stage | Date | Prediction | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | group stage | 13 June | Germany[38] | 4-0 | Correct |
| Serbia | group stage | 18 June | Serbia[38] | 0–1 | Correct |
| Ghana | group stage | 23 June | Germany[38] | 1–0 | Correct |
| England | round of 16 | 27 June | Germany[15] | 4–1 | Correct |
| Argentina | quarter-finals | 3 July | Germany[31] | 4–0 | Correct |
| Spain | semi-finals | 7 July | Spain[39] | 0–1 | Correct |
| Uruguay | 3rd place play-off | 10 July | Germany[40] | 3–2 | Correct |
Retirement
On July 12, 2010, Paul was retired from making predictions.[46] Paul's owners stated "He won't give any more oracle predictions – either in football, or in politics, lifestyle or economy. Paul will get back to his former job, namely making children laugh."[46] As a reward for his accurate predictions, aquarium staff presented him with his very own replica World Cup trophy garnished with his favourite food – mussels.
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